College Football Ranking Analysis


The following pages analyze and compare various rankings of American College Football's Division I-A (now known as FBS) teams. We know that the AP and USA Today polls rank the teams, as does the BCS composite ranking used to determine the teams for the top bowl spots. And many other rankings have been produced and made available on the web.

So how do all these rankings stack up? Which ones fit well with the whole seasons' wins and losses? Which ones have been predicting wins and losses? For each ranking, how often does the higher ranking team win?

Correlations Same for Top 25 only
How well various rankings earlier in the season correlate with a current mean ranking.
Wins Explained Same for Top 25 only
How well various rankings earlier in the season fit with all the wins and losses this season.
Predicted Wins Same for Top 25 only
How well various rankings earlier in the season have predicted subsequent games.
Combination
An average of the above-three measures.
Same for Top 25 only
An overall comparison of the rankings that puts them on an equal footing, whether they cover just the top 25 or whether they cover the entire division.
Combination of all six
An averge of six measures: the above three measures for full rankings, and the same three measures for top 25 rankings.

The data to produce these pages is from Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison, which lists many college football rankings.

Remember, this is just an exhibition, so please -- no wagering.

 


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