College Football Ranking Analysis

The following pages analyze and compare various rankings of American College Football's Division I-A (now known as FBS) teams. We know that the AP and USA Today polls rank the teams, as does the BCS composite ranking used to determine the teams for the top bowl spots. And many other rankings have been produced and made available on the web.

So how do all these rankings stack up? Which ones fit well with the whole seasons' wins and losses? Which ones have been predicting wins and losses? For each ranking, how often does the higher ranking team win?

• Correlations: how well various rankings earlier in the season correlate with a current mean ranking.
• Wins Explained: how well various rankings earlier in the season fit with all the wins and losses this season.
• Predicted Wins: how well various rankings earlier in the season have predicted subsequent games.
• Combination: an average of the above-three measures.
• Same combination, for just the top 25 teams: an overall comparison of the rankings that puts them on an equal footing, whether they cover just the top 25 or whether they cover the entire division.
• Combination of full and top 25: an averge of six measures: the above three measures for full rankings, and the same three for top 25 rankings.

The data to produce these pages is from Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison, which not only lists over a hundred college football rankings, but also has links to other's analyses of these rankings.

Remember, this is just an exhibition, so please -- no wagering.