2018 NCAA Pool Results

Results of an "NCAA pool scoring" of each ranking listed in Kenneth Massey's Last Pre-Tournament College Basketball Ranking Comparison using the final 63 games of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.

1   PIG       78.000  (41/63     i.e. 22 10 4 2 2 1)
2   SFX       75.000  (42/63     i.e. 24 10 4 2 1 1)
3   DCI       72.000  (41/63     i.e. 23 10 4 3 1 0)
4   COX       70.000  (39/63     i.e. 23 8 4 2 1 1)
5   BNT       67.000  (40/63     i.e. 25 9 3 1 1 1)
5   EBP       67.000  (40/63     i.e. 25 9 3 1 1 1)
5   LOG       67.000  (40/63     i.e. 25 9 3 1 1 1)
5   SAG       67.000  (39/63     i.e. 23 10 3 1 1 1)
5   YAG       67.000  (40/63     i.e. 25 9 3 1 1 1)
10  Average   66.000  (39/63     i.e. 24 9 3 1 1 1)
10  BLS       66.000  (39/63     i.e. 24 9 3 1 1 1)
10  BUR       66.000  (39/63     i.e. 24 9 3 1 1 1)
10  DAV       66.000  (39/63     i.e. 24 9 3 1 1 1)
10  DUN       66.000  (41/63     i.e. 26 9 3 2 1 0)
10  LAB       66.000  (39/63     i.e. 25 8 2 2 1 1)
10  LMC       66.000  (40/63     i.e. 26 8 3 1 1 1)
10  TPR       66.000  (39/63     i.e. 24 9 3 1 1 1)
10  WLK       66.000  (39/63     i.e. 24 9 3 1 1 1)
19  CNG       65.000  (38/63     i.e. 23 9 3 1 1 1)
19  MAS       65.000  (40/63     i.e. 25 9 3 2 1 0)
19  SMS       65.000  (38/63     i.e. 23 9 3 1 1 1)
19  SP        65.000  (38/63     i.e. 23 9 3 1 1 1)
19  TRP       65.000  (38/63     i.e. 23 9 3 1 1 1)
24  7OT       64.000  (39/63     i.e. 26 7 3 1 1 1)
24  DOK       64.000  (38/63     i.e. 24 8 3 1 1 1)
24  FSH       64.000  (38/63     i.e. 24 8 3 1 1 1)
24  SPR       64.000  (37/63     i.e. 21 9 4 2 1 0)
28  DOL       63.000  (40/63     i.e. 25 10 3 1 1 0)
28  RT        63.000  (38/63     i.e. 25 7 3 1 1 1)
28  SMN       63.000  (38/63     i.e. 23 9 3 2 1 0)
28  ZAM       63.000  (38/63     i.e. 24 9 2 1 1 1)
32  DC2       62.000  (38/63     i.e. 26 6 3 1 1 1)
32  HAS       62.000  (36/63     i.e. 22 8 3 1 1 1)
32  MMG       62.000  (37/63     i.e. 23 9 2 1 1 1)
32  MOR       62.000  (39/63     i.e. 24 10 3 1 1 0)
32  RPI       62.000  (38/63     i.e. 24 8 3 2 1 0)
37  DII       61.000  (38/63     i.e. 24 8 4 1 1 0)
37  PRR       61.000  (39/63     i.e. 25 9 3 1 1 0)
37  USA       61.000  (36/63     i.e. 21 9 3 2 1 0)
40  BWE       60.000  (38/63     i.e. 24 9 3 1 1 0)
40  KPI       60.000  (37/63     i.e. 24 7 3 2 1 0)
40  PGH       60.000  (38/63     i.e. 25 8 2 2 1 0)
40  POM       60.000  (38/63     i.e. 24 9 3 1 1 0)
40  SGR       60.000  (39/63     i.e. 26 8 3 1 1 0)
45  KRA       59.000  (36/63     i.e. 22 9 2 2 1 0)
45  RTH       59.000  (37/63     i.e. 23 9 3 1 1 0)
45  SEL       59.000  (37/63     i.e. 24 8 2 2 1 0)
45  WIL       59.000  (36/63     i.e. 22 9 2 2 1 0)
45  WOB       59.000  (37/63     i.e. 24 8 2 2 1 0)
50  AP        58.000  (34/63     i.e. 20 8 3 2 1 0)
50  COL       58.000  (37/63     i.e. 25 7 2 2 1 0)
50  ESR       58.000  (37/63     i.e. 23 10 2 1 1 0)
50  KPK       58.000  (37/63     i.e. 24 8 3 1 1 0)
54  FAS       57.000  (37/63     i.e. 24 9 2 1 1 0)
54  Median    57.000  (36/63     i.e. 23 8 3 1 1 0)
54  STM       57.000  (36/63     i.e. 23 8 3 1 1 0)
54  WMV       57.000  (36/63     i.e. 23 8 3 1 1 0)
58  BIH       56.000  (37/63     i.e. 25 8 2 1 1 0)
58  DDB       56.000  (34/63     i.e. 21 7 4 1 1 0)
58  JNG       56.000  (36/63     i.e. 23 8 3 2 0 0)
58  STH       56.000  (36/63     i.e. 24 7 3 1 1 0)
62  ARG       55.000  (36/63     i.e. 24 8 2 1 1 0)
63  BBT       54.000  (36/63     i.e. 25 7 2 1 1 0)
63  REW       54.000  (34/63     i.e. 22 7 3 1 1 0)
63  RTP       54.000  (34/63     i.e. 23 6 2 2 1 0)
63  TRK       54.000  (36/63     i.e. 23 9 3 1 0 0)
63  WOL       54.000  (36/63     i.e. 25 7 2 1 1 0)
68  JJK       53.000  (35/63     i.e. 24 7 2 1 1 0)
69  DES       52.000  (32/63     i.e. 20 7 3 1 1 0)
70  SPW       50.000  (32/63     i.e. 21 7 2 1 1 0)
Scoring:
Round 1: 1 point.
Round 2: 2 points.
Round 3: 3 points.
Round 4: 4 points.
Round 5: 5 points.
Round 6: 6 points.
'Average' is Massey comparison Mean ranking.
'Median' is Massey comparison Median ranking.

But how do the top 25 of the rankings stack up? Here is the pool scoring based solely on the top 25 teams in each ranking, treating the other teams as a large 26th-place tie. (This is inferior scoring of the pool other than to compare impartially with a ranking that only ranks 25 teams, such as AP or USA: see scoring explanation below.)

1   PIG       79.997  (42.997/63 i.e. 23.997 10 4 2 2 1)
2   SFX       79.925  (42.953/63 i.e. 23.960 10 4 2 1.993 1)
3   Allsame   77.627  (41.854/63 i.e. 23.735 9.225 3.888 2.200 1.862 0.945)
4   DCI       73.189  (42.189/63 i.e. 24.189 10 4 3 1 0)
5   COX       71.203  (40.203/63 i.e. 24.203 8 4 2 1 1)
6   SAG       67.615  (39.615/63 i.e. 23.615 10 3 1 1 1)
7   LOG       66.809  (39.809/63 i.e. 24.809 9 3 1 1 1)
8   BNT       66.622  (39.622/63 i.e. 24.622 9 3 1 1 1)
9   SPR       66.600  (39.600/63 i.e. 23.600 9 4 2 1 0)
10  BUR       66.585  (39.585/63 i.e. 24.585 9 3 1 1 1)
11  TPR       66.279  (39.279/63 i.e. 24.279 9 3 1 1 1)
12  BLS       66.203  (39.203/63 i.e. 24.203 9 3 1 1 1)
12  CNG       66.203  (39.203/63 i.e. 24.203 9 3 1 1 1)
12  EBP       66.203  (39.203/63 i.e. 24.203 9 3 1 1 1)
12  TRP       66.203  (39.203/63 i.e. 24.203 9 3 1 1 1)
16  YAG       66.131  (39.131/63 i.e. 24.131 9 3 1 1 1)
17  LAB       65.953  (38.953/63 i.e. 24.953 8 2 2 1 1)
18  Average   65.809  (38.809/63 i.e. 23.809 9 3 1 1 1)
18  WLK       65.809  (38.809/63 i.e. 23.809 9 3 1 1 1)
20  DAV       65.790  (38.790/63 i.e. 23.790 9 3 1 1 1)
21  SMS       65.753  (38.753/63 i.e. 23.753 9 3 1 1 1)
22  SP        65.587  (38.587/63 i.e. 23.587 9 3 1 1 1)
23  MAS       64.928  (39.928/63 i.e. 24.928 9 3 2 1 0)
24  HAS       64.569  (38.569/63 i.e. 24.569 8 3 1 1 1)
25  USA       64.543  (39.543/63 i.e. 24.543 9 3 2 1 0)
26  SMN       64.468  (39.468/63 i.e. 24.468 9 3 2 1 0)
27  LMC       64.228  (38.228/63 i.e. 24.228 8 3 1 1 1)
28  FSH       64.182  (38.182/63 i.e. 24.182 8 3 1 1 1)
29  DUN       63.875  (38.875/63 i.e. 23.875 9 3 2 1 0)
30  DOK       63.841  (37.841/63 i.e. 23.841 8 3 1 1 1)
31  7OT       63.500  (38.500/63 i.e. 25.500 7 3 1 1 1)
32  MMG       62.694  (37.694/63 i.e. 23.694 9 2 1 1 1)
33  ZAM       62.545  (37.545/63 i.e. 23.545 9 2 1 1 1)
34  RPI       62.303  (38.303/63 i.e. 24.303 8 3 2 1 0)
35  RT        62.223  (37.223/63 i.e. 24.223 7 3 1 1 1)
36  AP        62.046  (38.046/63 i.e. 24.046 8 3 2 1 0)
37  MOR       62.004  (39.004/63 i.e. 24.004 10 3 1 1 0)
38  DOL       61.906  (38.906/63 i.e. 23.906 10 3 1 1 0)
39  DII       61.203  (38.203/63 i.e. 24.203 8 4 1 1 0)
39  KRA       61.203  (38.203/63 i.e. 24.203 9 2 2 1 0)
39  WIL       61.203  (38.203/63 i.e. 24.203 9 2 2 1 0)
42  POM       60.809  (38.809/63 i.e. 24.809 9 3 1 1 0)
43  KPI       60.722  (37.722/63 i.e. 24.722 7 3 2 1 0)
44  RTH       60.659  (38.659/63 i.e. 24.659 9 3 1 1 0)
45  BWE       60.548  (38.548/63 i.e. 24.548 9 3 1 1 0)
46  DC2       60.428  (36.428/63 i.e. 24.428 6 3 1 1 1)
47  PRR       60.279  (38.279/63 i.e. 24.279 9 3 1 1 0)
48  Median    59.767  (37.788/63 i.e. 23.809 8.979 3 1 1 0)
49  WOB       59.370  (37.370/63 i.e. 24.370 8 2 2 1 0)
50  DDB       59.166  (36.996/63 i.e. 23.826 7.170 4 1 1 0)
51  PGH       59.161  (37.161/63 i.e. 24.161 8 2 2 1 0)
52  ESR       58.906  (37.906/63 i.e. 23.906 10 2 1 1 0)
53  SEL       58.767  (36.767/63 i.e. 23.767 8 2 2 1 0)
54  STM       58.606  (37.606/63 i.e. 24.606 8 3 1 1 0)
55  SGR       58.428  (37.428/63 i.e. 24.428 8 3 1 1 0)
56  COL       57.827  (36.827/63 i.e. 24.827 7 2 2 1 0)
57  KPK       57.809  (36.809/63 i.e. 23.809 8 3 1 1 0)
57  WMV       57.809  (36.809/63 i.e. 23.809 8 3 1 1 0)
59  JNG       56.600  (36.600/63 i.e. 23.600 8 3 2 0 0)
60  FAS       56.585  (36.585/63 i.e. 23.585 9 2 1 1 0)
61  STH       56.479  (36.479/63 i.e. 24.479 7 3 1 1 0)
62  DES       56.246  (36.246/63 i.e. 24.246 7 3 1 1 0)
63  REW       55.582  (35.582/63 i.e. 23.582 7 3 1 1 0)
64  TRK       55.548  (37.548/63 i.e. 24.548 9 3 1 0 0)
65  RTP       55.296  (35.296/63 i.e. 24.296 6 2 2 1 0)
66  ARG       54.809  (35.809/63 i.e. 23.809 8 2 1 1 0)
67  BIH       54.512  (35.512/63 i.e. 23.512 8 2 1 1 0)
68  SPW       54.127  (35.183/63 i.e. 23.239 7.944 2 1 1 0)
69  BBT       53.931  (35.931/63 i.e. 24.931 7 2 1 1 0)
70  JJK       53.031  (35.031/63 i.e. 24.031 7 2 1 1 0)
71  WOL       52.534  (34.534/63 i.e. 23.534 7 2 1 1 0)
Scoring:
Round 1: 1 point.
Round 2: 2 points.
Round 3: 3 points.
Round 4: 4 points.
Round 5: 5 points.
Round 6: 6 points.
Top 25 of rankings only.
Games with both teams beyond 25 or teams of same rank
 given a calculated partial credit.
'Average' is Massey comparison Mean ranking.
'Median' is Massey comparison Median ranking.
'Allsame' is ranking with all teams ranked equally.

Explanation of "top 25" pool scoring

This pool scoring is inferior, other than to compare against rankings that rank only 25 teams.

Scoring method: when a ranking ranks at least one game within its top 25, that ranking's implied choice of winner is obvious. For a game in which a ranking ranks neither team as "top 25", that ranking is given partial credit: a fraction of what correctly calling the game would have earned it. To be impartial, for each game, there is one fraction used for any ranking that doesn't call that game with their top 25 rankings.

The fractional credit for a game is the number of full rankings that correctly called that game, e.g., if there were 50 full rankings and 40 of them called that game, the fraction would be .8, an estimate of the probability that some random ranking method would have called the game correctly. Thus full rankings do affect this scoring, but in the same way for all the rankings including themselves.

I adopted this type of scoring because the difference between ranking a team and not (e.g., ranking it 24 versus ranking it 27) otherwise affects such a "top-25 only" pool results a lot, even when those teams ranked 24 and 27 never actually play each other, the typical case. I adopted a fraction based on expectations of which way the game would go because it seems wrong to give a ranking much credit for an upset between two teams they didn't rank in their top 25 or to penalize them very much on a game likely to be called correctly.

This method is imperfect, but so is any method of scoring such a pool based on incomplete rankings.


 


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