Explanation of College Football and Men's Basketball Combined Full+25 Summary
These tables score and rank various rankings of sports teams
(college football and men's basketball),
where the ranking's score is an average of six other measures of the ranking.
The six:
- The ranking's correlation to the current mean ranking of all the division's teams. The mean ranking is that on the comparison page (see "Data source" below).
- Percent of the division's wins and losses for the season that are in line with the ranking.
- Percent of the division's wins and losses since the ranking came out, that are in line with the ranking (predictions).
- The ranking's top 25 teams' correlation to the mean ranking
of the division's top 25 teams.
- Percent of the division's wins and losses for the season in line with the ranking's top 25 teams.
- Percent of the division's wins and losses since the ranking came out, that are in line with the ranking's 25 top teams (predictions).
These six numbers are averaged to yield this score for the ranking.
These are done for each week prior to the current week.
The "Current Week" column is the average of four of the six measures:
without the predictions.
The "Overall" column is a composite of the four weeks prior to the
current week, with some penalty for rankings for which we don't have
for all four of those weeks.
A couple of factors lower some of the measures,
but do so equally for all rankings:
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Indivudal rankings' recommended home/away adjustments are not
considered in the win/loss percentages.
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For each ranking, its "top 25" equivalent consists of the
ranking of its top 25 teams and a very large 26-way tie
covering the rest of the division.
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For the top 25 wins/losses scoring, all the division's wins/losses
are compared against this "top 25 with 26-way tie", and any game
between two of the 26th-and-above teams is considered "unexplained"
or "not predicted" by the ranking.
In effect, wins/losses among the top 25 teams are counted double
and predicted wins/losses (after the ranking came out) are counted
double, making top 25 predictions count four times.
This scoring is not comparable between full rankings versus
rankings that rank only the top 25 teams, e.g. AP and USA.
For a comparable scoring, see the similar page that
averages just the last three of the six above measures
("Combined Ranking Analysis" for the top 25 teams).
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Data source is Kenneth Massey's comparison pages:
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The structure and detail of this "Combined Full+25 Summary" page is
analogous to that of the "Correlations", "Wins Explained",
and "Wins Predicted" pages.
The "combined analysis" rating is an average of the three.
See the explantions of the three:
The "overall" ranking is for convenience, and is an average
of the four weeks prior to the current week.
A separate version of the analysis covers just each rankings'
top 25 teams.
Wobus Sports: www.vaporia.com/sports